Mu gihe ubukungu bw’isi bukomeje kwerekana ubushobozi bwo kwihanganira ibibazo bitandukanye, hari ibihugu bikomeje guhura n’ibibazo bikomeye by’ubukungu. Intambara, inflation ikabije, umwenda wa Leta, ihungabana ry’ifaranga, imiyoborere mibi n’igabanuka ry’umusaruro biri mu mpamvu zikomeye zituma ubukungu bw’ibihugu bimwe na bimwe budindira.

Raporo nshya z’International Monetary Fund (IMF) zigaragaza ko ubukungu bw’isi muri 2026 bushobora gukura ku kigero cya 3.0%, ariko ibibazo by’ibiciro bikomeje kuba imbogamizi. IMF yateganyije ko inflation ku rwego rw’isi izaba hafi ya 4.7%, mu gihe inzira yo kugabanya inflation yari yatangiye mu myaka ishize ubu yarahagaze.

1. Venezuela: Inflation ikomeje kuba ikibazo gikomeye

Venezuela iri mu bihugu bifite ikibazo gikomeye cy’ihungabana ry’ibiciro. Ku mibare ya IMF, inflation y’ibiciro by’abaguzi muri 2026 iteganyijwe kugera kuri 387.4%, nubwo IMF iteganya ko GDP ishobora gukura ku kigero cya 4.0%.

Ikibazo cya Venezuela gifitanye isano n’imyaka y’imiyoborere mibi y’ubukungu, ihungabana ry’ifaranga, ibihano mpuzamahanga, kugabanuka kw’umusaruro wa peteroli ndetse n’uko igihugu cyagiye gishingira cyane ku byinjizwa na peteroli.

Iyo inflation igeze ku rwego rwo hejuru cyane, amafaranga abaturage bafite atakaza agaciro vuba, bigatuma ibiciro by’ibiribwa, ubwikorezi n’ibindi bicuruzwa bihinduka cyane.

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2. Sudan: Intambara yahinduye ubukungu ikibazo cy’ubuzima

Sudan ni urugero rugaragaza neza uburyo intambara ishobora gusenya ubukungu bw’igihugu.

Kuva intambara yatangira, ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi, inganda n’ibikorwa remezo byangiritse, mu gihe abaturage benshi bahunze ingo zabo. Banki y’Isi ivuga ko kugeza muri Werurwe 2026, abantu barenga miliyoni 11.6 bari baravanywe mu byabo, kandi miliyoni 21.2 hafi 41% by’abaturage bari bafite ikibazo gikomeye cyo kubona ibiribwa.

Intambara igabanya umusaruro w’igihugu, ikabangamira ubucuruzi n’imisoro, ikongera amafaranga Leta ikenera mu bikorwa byihutirwa. Ibi byose bituma igihugu kigira ikibazo cyo gutanga serivisi z’ibanze no kubaka ubukungu bushya.

3. Lebanon: Ihungabana ry’imari rimaze imyaka

Lebanon nayo iri mu bihugu byahuye n’imwe mu bibazo bikomeye by’imari mu myaka ya vuba.

Ikibazo cyatangiye gukomera cyane kuva mu 2019, nyuma y’imyaka y’imicungire mibi y’imari ya Leta n’izamuka ry’umwenda. Ifaranga ry’igihugu ryatakaje hejuru ya 90% by’agaciro, mu gihe amabanki yagiye agira imbogamizi zikomeye mu gutanga amafaranga y’abaturage.

Muri Kanama 2026, IMF yakiriye neza ivugururwa ry’amategeko agenga gukemura ibibazo by’amabanki, ivuga ko ari intambwe ikomeye mu gushaka gukemura ikibazo cy’imari cya Lebanon. Ariko igihugu kiracyakeneye izindi mpinduka zikomeye kugira ngo kibashe kongera kubaka icyizere mu rwego rw’amabanki.

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4. Argentina: Inflation yaragabanutse ariko ibibazo biracyahari

Argentina ni igihugu cyagaragaje impinduka zikomeye mu guhangana na inflation.

Politiki nshya y’ubukungu ya Perezida Javier Milei yagabanyije cyane inflation ugereranyije n’urwego rwo hejuru rwariho mu ntangiriro za 2024. IMF nayo ivuga ko Argentina yakomeje gutera imbere mu guhindura no gutuza ubukungu.

Ariko kugabanya inflation byazanye n’ibindi bibazo. Ingengo y’imari yagabanyijwe cyane, inguzanyo zirahenda, kandi igice kinini cy’abaturage kiracyahanganye n’ubushobozi buke bwo kwishyura imyenda. Raporo iheruka ivuga ko abantu bagera kuri miliyoni 5.8 batangiye kugira ibibazo byo kwishyura imyenda yabo.

Ibi bigaragaza ko kugabanya inflation bidahita bivuze ko abaturage bahise babona ubuzima bwiza; politiki yo kuvugurura ubukungu ishobora kubanza kugira ingaruka ku ikoreshwa ry’amafaranga n’imyenda y’abaturage.

5. Zimbabwe: Ikibazo cy’ifaranga n’umurage wa hyperinflation

Zimbabwe imaze imyaka ihura n’ikibazo cy’ihungabana ry’ifaranga n’izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro.

IMF ivuga ko igihugu cyagiye kigira ibihe bya hyperinflation, ariko ko politiki zikomeye z’imari n’ifaranga zafashije gutuza ifaranga rishya rya ZiG no kugabanya inflation. Nubwo hari intambwe yatewe, igihugu kiracyafite imbogamizi zijyanye n’imari ya Leta, ihindagurika ry’ifaranga, imihindagurikire y’ikirere n’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa ku isoko mpuzamahanga.

6. Brazil: Umwenda w’abaturage urimo gutera impungenge

Brazil ntabwo iri mu bihugu byugarijwe n’ihungabana ry’ubukungu nk’ibihugu byavuzwe haruguru, ariko ifite ikibazo cy’umwenda w’abaturage.

Reuters yatangaje ko amafaranga abaturage bakoresha mu kwishyura imyenda, hatabariwemo inguzanyo z’amazu, yari ageze ku 26.6% by’amafaranga binjiza muri Kamena 2026, urwego rwo hejuru rwigeze kubaho. IMF yasabye Brazil gukaza igenzura ku nguzanyo no kurinda abakoresha serivisi z’imari.

Iki kibazo gishobora kugabanya ubushobozi bw’imiryango bwo gukoresha amafaranga mu bindi bikorwa, cyane cyane iyo inyungu ku nguzanyo zikomeje kuba hejuru.

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Ni iki gitera ibi bibazo?

Ubushakashatsi bwa IMF, Banki y’Isi n’andi makuru y’ubukungu bugaragaza ko ibibazo by’ibi bihugu bitandukanye, ariko hari impamvu zisubiramo:

1. Intambara n’umutekano muke: Intambara isenya ibikorwa remezo, igahagarika ubucuruzi, ikagabanya umusaruro kandi ikongera amafaranga Leta ikoresha.

2. Inflation: Iyo ibiciro bizamutse cyane, amafaranga abaturage bafite atakaza agaciro, bigatuma ubuzima buhenza.

3. Umwenda munini: Iyo Leta ifite imyenda myinshi, amafaranga menshi ajya mu kwishyura inyungu aho kujya mu burezi, ubuzima, ibikorwa remezo n’iterambere.

4. Ihungabana ry’ifaranga: Ifaranga ritakaje agaciro rituma ibicuruzwa bitumizwa hanze bihenze, cyane cyane peteroli, imashini n’ibiribwa.

5. Kwishingikiriza ku bicuruzwa bike: Ibihugu bishingiye cyane kuri peteroli, amabuye y’agaciro cyangwa ikindi gicuruzwa kimwe bishobora guhungabana cyane iyo ibiciro byacyo ku isoko mpuzamahanga bigabanutse.

6. Imihindagurikire y’ikirere: Amateka y’ubukungu ya vuba agaragaza ko amapfa, imyuzure n’ibindi biza bishobora kugabanya umusaruro w’ubuhinzi no kongera ibiciro by’ibiribwa. Banki y’Isi ivuga ko COVID-19, inflation, intambara n’ibihe bidasanzwe by’ikirere byagize uruhare mu gukomeza ibibazo by’ubukungu n’ubukene mu bihugu byinshi.

IMF ibona iki ku bukungu bw’isi?

IMF ivuga ko ubukungu bw’isi butarasenyuka nubwo hari ibibazo byinshi. Ubukungu bw’isi buteganyijwe gukura ku 3.0% muri 2026, ariko ibibazo birimo umwenda munini wa Leta, inflation ikomeje, amakimbirane y’ubucuruzi n’ihungabana ry’ibiciro by’ingufu biracyateza ingaruka.

By'umwihariko, IMF yaburiye ko ihungabana ry’ingufu rishobora kongera inflation kandi rigatuma amabanki nkuru akomeza politiki y’inyungu ziri hejuru. Mu gihe ibiciro bya peteroli bikomeje kuba hejuru kubera amakimbirane yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, ibihugu bitumiza ingufu byinshi bishobora guhura n’izamuka ry’ibiciro.

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Ibibazo by’ubukungu ku isi ntibifite impamvu imwe. Muri Venezuela, ikibazo gikomeye ni inflation n’ihungabana ry’ifaranga; muri Sudan, intambara ni yo iri gusenya ubukungu; muri Lebanon, ikibazo cy’imari n’amabanki kimaze imyaka; muri Argentina, gahunda yo kugabanya inflation irimo gutera impinduka zikomeye ariko ikomeje kubabaza ubushobozi bw’imiryango; naho Zimbabwe ikomeje guhangana n’umurage w’ihungabana ry’ifaranga.

Ibi byose bigaragaza ko ubukungu bukomeye budashingira gusa ku kuzamuka kwa GDP, ahubwo bushingira no ku gaciro k’ifaranga, ubushobozi bwo kugenzura inflation, imicungire y’umwenda, umutekano, imirimo n’ubushobozi bw’abaturage bwo kubona ibyo bakeneye ku giciro bashoboye kwishyura.